Research Library
Proprietary quantitative research on crowd-positioning patterns, configuration behavior, and contextual factors. Numbered research notes backed by observed pattern occurrences across 41 instruments.
Public Research
5 foundational papers — open to everyone.
Statistical Transparency: How We Report Performance
Every number on this platform represents a deliberate choice. This report documents those choices — why we use medians over means, how we compute MFE:MAE ratios in different contexts, what we publish that most providers hide, and what common practices we intentionally avoid.
When the System Stops: An Anatomy of 48 Catastrophic Exits
Of 2,869 published patterns, 48 triggered the -100 pip catastrophic stop — 1.7%. Three macro events account for 33% of all stops. Every stopped pattern documented by name, with MAE, MFE, and event association. The system does not erode — it gets hit by identifiable, non-repeating macro events, then recovers.
Crowd Positioning as a Contrarian Signal: A Statistical Framework
A foundational analysis of retail crowd positioning behavior across 28 currency pairs over 7 years, establishing the statistical basis for contrarian pattern detection using dual-timeframe crowd-extreme methodology.
Price Path Dynamics After Retail Positioning Extremes
When the crowd reaches maximum conviction, does the contrarian reversal materialize? Forward excursion analysis of 75,864 SSI extreme events against a random baseline finds no systematic price path advantage. The null holds across z-score magnitudes, sessions, and eras. The only non-random signal is a modest directional asymmetry favoring crowd-short fades.
Anatomy of Unfavorable Patterns: When Direction Is Right but Timing Is Wrong
47% of unfavorable patterns reached +30 pips during their lifetime before resolving negatively. Analysis of loss mechanics, timing mismatches, and what unfavorable patterns reveal about market microstructure.
Subscriber Research
10 additional research notes covering detection characteristics, contextual factors, and proprietary monitoring frameworks.
Access the Full Research Library
Subscribers get full access to all 15 research notes, raw data appendices, and monthly/quarterly intelligence updates.