Disclaimer

Not Investment Advice

FX Engineer is a data and research product. We do not provide investment advice, trading recommendations, or personalized financial guidance.

The realized volatility forecast is a statistical model output. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. No content on this site or delivered through our API constitutes financial, legal, accounting, tax, or investment advice, or a recommendation to engage in any transaction.

What the Model Does and Does Not Do

The model predicts the probability that a currency pair will experience a significant price move over a specified time horizon. It predicts magnitude probability — not direction, not a specific pip value, not a specific price target.

This product does not predict whether prices will go up or down. A high volatility probability score means the model estimates a large move is likely. It says nothing about which direction that move will take.

Statistical Model Limitations

All model outputs are probabilistic estimates subject to model risk, data risk, and changing market conditions. An AUC of 0.81 means the model correctly discriminates between volatile and quiet periods approximately 81% of the time in historical testing. The model is wrong on individual predictions.

Past model performance — whether measured by AUC, Brier score, precision, or any other metric — does not guarantee future results. Model performance can and will vary across time periods, currency pairs, market regimes, and economic conditions. The model is retrained periodically and past versions may perform differently than current versions.

Your Responsibility

All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the subscriber. FX Engineer is a data provider. We are not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, or fiduciary. We do not manage money, execute trades, or have any discretionary authority over your accounts.

You should consult your own financial advisor, broker, or other professional before making any trading or investment decisions. You should not rely on any single data source — including FX Engineer — as the sole basis for trading decisions.

Risk of Loss

Trading foreign exchange involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage available in foreign exchange trading can work against you as well as for you. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before trading foreign exchange.

The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment. Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

No Warranty

All data, forecasts, and research provided by FX Engineer are delivered on an "as is" and "as available" basis without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement.

FX Engineer does not warrant that the service will be uninterrupted, timely, secure, or error-free, or that any defects will be corrected. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any data, forecast, or content provided through the service.

Limitation of Liability

In no event shall FX Engineer, its officers, directors, employees, or agents be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages arising out of or related to your use of or inability to use the service, including but not limited to loss of profits, trading losses, or loss of data, whether based on warranty, contract, tort, or any other legal theory.

Questions

If you have questions about this disclaimer, contact us at info@fxengineer.com or visit our contact page.